Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 34.287368 40.564139 47.408928 55.394960 64.422878 74.278367 85.815997
2025-06-08 23.933272 32.037064 41.728944 54.031635 69.079297 86.727772 108.821642
2025-06-15 19.276867 28.365321 40.012897 55.725354 76.027575 101.019438 133.713464
2025-06-22 15.113919 24.278505 36.785466 54.587271 78.698747 109.608688 151.532166
2025-06-29 12.877388 22.311883 35.891648 56.096313 84.523123 122.154371 174.649723
2025-07-06 9.973245 18.788182 32.232355 53.197853 83.883346 125.857459 186.090004
2025-07-13 8.753400 17.648735 31.856986 54.841615 89.514878 138.129183 209.372777
2025-07-20 7.680629 16.546690 31.351380 56.143540 94.607639 149.770237 232.165607
2025-07-27 6.865579 15.742799 31.189836 57.885837 100.360300 162.508819 256.906989
2025-08-03 6.105141 14.897989 30.831326 59.219910 105.485916 174.476120 280.921248
2025-08-10 5.154103 13.499088 29.323135 58.478153 107.247984 181.463960 297.896311
2025-08-17 4.550356 12.695748 28.771100 59.260751 111.410463 192.142857 320.578946
2025-08-24 3.908419 11.743616 27.936470 59.675892 115.331512 203.143967 345.003276
2025-08-31 3.129825 10.300185 25.965475 57.886599 115.504555 208.420101 361.169715
2025-09-07 2.796441 9.860159 25.943460 59.658505 121.795223 223.567808 392.955959
2025-09-14 2.279505 8.797829 24.449485 58.455591 122.776792 230.167979 411.630384
2025-09-21 2.035538 8.425459 24.400706 60.049328 128.778435 245.146157 443.941317
2025-09-28 1.551919 7.179785 22.162351 56.987684 126.090517 245.558143 452.983677
2025-10-05 1.397877 6.933117 22.246719 58.724205 132.350819 261.208091 487.060012
2025-10-12 1.244525 6.640023 22.170923 60.099198 137.980508 275.963586 520.093775
2025-10-19 1.127969 6.442741 22.308543 61.938739 144.578365 292.598173 556.677235
2025-10-26 1.007494 6.188857 22.258629 63.346868 150.392059 308.046738 591.703072
2025-11-02 0.830234 5.628971 21.286827 62.563977 151.816910 315.796870 614.038664